Following the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Royal Air Force embarked on innovative experiments with new technologies to support Ukrainian forces in repelling Moscow’s aggression. A notable development was the arming of Ukrainian Su-24 aircraft with British Stormshadow missiles in May 2023.

While integrating the missile onto the RAF’s Typhoon aircraft had taken four years of trials, the RAF’s swiftly-assembled High Risk Operations Cell managed to achieve the same for Ukraine's Su-24s in just 10 weeks.

Following this, Dr Antrobus, Senior Research Fellow and Co-Director of the Freeman Air & Space Institute, was asked by the RAF to initiate a research project to examine its approach to risk. Collaborating with the RAF’s Air Capability Director, discovered a trend towards risk aversion in the force over three decades of ‘wars of choice’ since the end of the Cold War.

Dr Antrobus's research paper, titled ‘An Applied History of the RAF’s approach to risk and implications for modern warfighting’, was published in December 2023.

The paper was subsequently used as the primary piece of evidence in the Chief of the Air Staff’s submission to the Ministry of Defence’s Military Capability Board (MCB) in September 2024. This made the case for a greater risk appetite, in part to enable greater support for Ukraine. The MCB, chaired by the Deputy Chief of the Defence Staff (Military Capability), is responsible for strategic force development across defence and making recommendations to the Armed Forces Committee and Defence Board.

The paper was cited in the submission, advocating for the creation of a methodology for procuring and using High Risk Capabilities to address a lack of risk appetite. The proposal was endorsed. As a result, the MOD has updated its policy on risk and operational capability.